Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Climate

Dirk Lauwaet¹  Hans Hooyberghs¹  Bino Maiheu²  Wouter Lefebvre²  Guy Driesen²  Stijn Van Looy²  Koen De Ridder¹  Aondover Tarhule² 

[1] Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium;

关键词: climate change;    dynamical downscaling;    urban heat island;   

DOI  :  10.3390/cli3020391

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005) and future (2081–2100) climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.