A Robust Bayesian Approach to an Optimal Replacement Policy for Gas Pipelines

Entropy

José Pablo Arias-Nicolás²  Jacinto Martín⁴  Fabrizio Ruggeri¹  Alfonso Suárez-Llorens⁵  Carlos Alberto de Bragan๺ Pereira³ 

[1] Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via Bassini 15, I-20133, Milano, Italy;Departamento de Matematicas, Facultad de Estudios Empresariales y Turismo, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. Universidad 10003, Cáceres, Spain; E-Mail:;Departamento de Matematicas, Facultad de Estudios Empresariales y Turismo, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. Universidad 10003, Cáceres, Spain; E-Mail;Departamento de Matematicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas 06071, Badajoz, Spain; E-Mail:;Departamento de Estadistica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cádiz, Avda. Polígono Río San Pedro 11510, Puerto Real (Cádiz), Spain; E-Mail:

关键词: sensitivity analysis;    class of priors;    non-dominated actions;    gas escapes;    reliability;   

DOI  :  10.3390/e17063656

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In the paper, we address Bayesian sensitivity issues when integrating experts’ judgments with available historical data in a case study about strategies for the preventive maintenance of low-pressure cast iron pipelines in an urban gas distribution network. We are interested in replacement priorities, as determined by the failure rates of pipelines deployed under different conditions. We relax the assumptions, made in previous papers, about the prior distributions on the failure rates and study changes in replacement priorities under different choices of generalized moment-constrained classes of priors. We focus on the set of non-dominated actions, and among them, we propose the least sensitive action as the optimal choice to rank different classes of pipelines, providing a sound approach to the sensitivity problem. Moreover, we are also interested in determining which classes have a failure rate exceeding a given acceptable value, considered as the threshold determining no need for replacement. Graphical tools are introduced to help decision makers to determine if pipelines are to be replaced and the corresponding priorities.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland