Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Jaewon Kwak⁴  Soojun Kim³  Gilho Kim¹  Vijay P. Singh²  Seungjin Hong⁵  Hung Soo Kim⁵ 

[1] Department of Hydro Science and Engineering, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 411-712, Korea; E-Mail:;Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Dept. of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, TX 77843, USA; E-Mail:;Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA;Forecast and Control Division, Nakdong River Flood Control Office, Busan 604-851, Korea; E-Mail:;Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751, Korea; E-Mail:

关键词: scrub typhus;    ANN;    meteorological variables;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph120707254

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.