Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Analysis in the Ouémé River Basin, Benin Republic

Hydrology

Jean Hounkpè¹  Bernd Diekkrüger²  Djigbo F. Badou¹  Abel A. Afouda¹ 

[1] West Africa Science Service Centre on Climate change and Adapted Land Use, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin; E-Mails:;Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, Bonn 53115, Germany; E-Mail:

关键词: break points;    non-stationary extreme value;    climate indexes;    flood frequency analysis;    Ouémé basin;   

DOI  :  10.3390/hydrology2040210

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

A statistical model to predict the probability and magnitude of floods in non-stationary conditions is presented. The model uses a time-dependent and/or covariate-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to fit the annual maximal (AM) discharge, and it is applied to five gauging stations in the Ouémé River Basin in Benin Republic, West Africa. Different combinations of the model parameters, which vary with respect to time and/or climate covariates, were explored with the stationary model based on three criteria of goodness of fit. The non-stationary model more adequately explains a substantial amount of variation in the data. The GEV-1 model, which incorporates a linear trend in its location parameter, surpasses the other models. Non-stationary return levels for different return periods have been proposed for the study area. This case study tested the hypothesis of stationarity in estimating flood events in the basin and it demonstrated the strong need to account for changes over time when performing flood frequency analyses.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.