The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models: A Multi-Scale Approach

Systems

Arnaud Banos¹  Nathalie Corson²  Benoit Gaudou³  Vincent Laperrière⁶  Sstien Rey Coyrehourcq⁴  Koen H. van Dam⁵ 

[1] UMR 8504 Géographie-cités, CNRS, Universities of Paris 1 and Paris 7, Paris 75006, France;LMAH, University of Le Havre, Le Havre 76600, France; E-Mail:;UMR 5505 IRIT, CNRS, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole, Toulouse 31000, France; E-Mail:;UMR 6266 IDEES, CNRS, University of Rouen, Rouen 76000, France; E-Mail:;id="af1-systems-03-00309">1UMR 8504 Géographie-cités, CNRS, Universities of Paris 1 and Paris 7, Paris 75006, Fran;UMR 7300 ESPACE, CNRS, Univ. Nice Sophia Antipolis, Avignon University, Aix Marseille University, Nice 06204, France; E-Mail:

关键词: agent-based modeling;    city systems;    disease spread;    mobility;    model coupling;    metapopulation;    network;    ODE;   

DOI  :  10.3390/systems3040309

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, defined as a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two different approaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) systems exploiting populations on nodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model), and a hybrid one, coupling ODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions (mean field approximation), this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on which we focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemic peak). However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidly diverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is not completely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies, which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages and disadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modeling and simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.