Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Francesca K. de’ Donato⁶  Michela Leone⁶  Matteo Scortichini⁶  Manuela De Sario⁶  Klea Katsouyanni³  Timo Lanki¹  Xavier Basaga༚⁵  Ferran Ballester²  Christofer Åström⁸  Anna Paldy⁷  Mathilde Pascal⁴  Antonio Gasparrini⁹  Bettina Menne^6,10  Paola Michelozzi⁶ 

[1] Department of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Neulaniementie 4, PO Box 95, Kuopio 70701, Finland;Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3–5, Madrid 28029, Spain;Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece;Department of Environmental Health (DSE), Institute de Veille Sanitaire, 12, rue du Val d’Osne, Saint Maurice 94415, France;Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Doctor Aiguader 88, Barcelona 08003, Spain;Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via di Santa Costanza 53, Rome 00198, Italy;Jozsef Fodor National Center of Public Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Department of Biological Monitoring, Gyali ut 2–6, Po Box 64, Budapest 1097, Hungary;Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University, Umeå 90187, Sweden;Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK;WHO Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, Bonn D-53113, Germany;

关键词: heat;    mortality;    adaptation;    attributable deaths;    climate change;    heat prevention plans;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph121215006

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.