A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks

Energies

Honglu Zhu³  Xu Li³  Qiao Sun¹  Ling Nie¹  Jianxi Yao³  Gang Zhao² 

[1] Beijing Guodiantong Network Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100070, China;School of Electronic Engineering, Xidian University, Xian 710071, China;School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;

关键词: photovoltaic power prediction;    wavelet decomposition;    artificial neural network;    theoretical solar irradiance;    signal reconstruction;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en9010011

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

The power prediction for photovoltaic (PV) power plants has significant importance for their grid connection. Due to PV power’s periodicity and non-stationary characteristics, traditional power prediction methods based on linear or time series models are no longer applicable. This paper presents a method combining the advantages of the wavelet decomposition (WD) and artificial neural network (ANN) to solve this problem. With the ability of ANN to address nonlinear relationships, theoretical solar irradiance and meteorological variables are chosen as the input of the hybrid model based on WD and ANN. The output power of the PV plant is decomposed using WD to separated useful information from disturbances. The ANNs are used to build the models of the decomposed PV output power. Finally, the outputs of the ANN models are reconstructed into the forecasted PV plant power. The presented method is compared with the traditional forecasting method based on ANN. The results shows that the method described in this paper needs less calculation time and has better forecasting precision.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.