KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

S.Torresan¹  A.Marcomini¹  A.Critto¹  P.Ronco¹  R.Olschewski¹  M.Zappa¹  M.Bullo¹ 

DOI  :  10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: Copernicus Publications

【 摘 要 】

The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment(KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1,Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed fordifferent receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical caseof river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating themethodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps andstatistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario forsix relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economicactivities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; naturaland semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total riskindex map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood riskwithin the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas andhotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools.Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement theconsideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view ofrelevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting forthe different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for theSihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. Ingeneral, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in thedeeply urbanized city centre and areasthat lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries andpotential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presenceof vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified ascontinuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways andrailways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station(Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirectdamage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural andsemi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively less importantmainly because the scattered presence of these assets. Finally, theapplication of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study, as wellas to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), hasdemonstrated its flexibility and the possible adaptation of it to differentgeographical and socioeconomic contexts, depending on data availability andparticulars of the sites, and for other (hazard) scenarios.

【 授权许可】

Unknown