Impact of Climate Change on the Monthly Runoff of a Semi-arid Catchment: Case Study Zarqa River Basin (Jordan)

Journal of Applied Biological Sciences

Fayez A. ABDULLA¹  Abbas S. AL-OMARI¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Optimization;    Rainfall-runoff modeling;    Incremental scenarios;    Calibration;    Validation;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Nobel Bilim ve Arasirma Merkezi/Nobel Science and Research Cente

【 摘 要 】

Inthispaper,thelong-termhydrologicalresponses(runoffandactualevapotranspiration)ofasemi-aridbasintoclimatechangeswereanalyzed.ThisbasinistheZarqaRiver(Jordan).Theclimatechangeswereimposedwithtwelvehypotheticalscenarios.Twoofthesescenarioswerebasedonthepredictionsofgeneralcirculationmodels(GCMs),namelytheHadleyandMPImodels.Theothertenscenariosareincrementalscenariosassociatedwithtemperatureincreasesby+2Cand+4Candchangesinprecipitationof0%,+10%,+20%,-10%,and–20%.Thesescenarioswereusedasabasisforobservingcausalrelationshipsamongrunoff,airtemperature,andprecipitation.TheSurface-Infiltration-Baseflow(SFB)waterbalancemodelthatwasdevelopedbyBoughton(1984)wasusedforobservingthesecausalrelationships.Firstly,arealprecipitationandpotentialevapotranspirationofthebasinareestimatedbasedontheobservedmeteorologicalandhydrologicaldata.ThemonthlyrunoffsimulationsarethenpredictedthroughtheapplicationoftheSFBmodel.Sevenyearsofmeteorologicalandhydrologicaldataareusedforcalibratingthemodel,andanotherSevenyearsoftherecordareusedformodelvalidation.TheglobaloptimizationtechniqueknownasShuffledComplexEvolution(SCE)methodisusedtoobtaintheoptimalparametersoftheSFBmodel.ThemodelperformedwellfortheZarqaRiverforwhichthecoefficientofdeterminationwas0.78.Theaveragemonthlyrunofffromthemodelcomparedwelltotheobservedaveragerunoff.Theerroroftheobservedandsimulatedstreamflowiswithinacceptancelimitandfoundtobearound18percent.Themodelperformanceinthevalidationstageisreasonableandcomparabletothoseofthecalibrationstage.Bothsetsofclimatechangescenariosresultedindecreasesinmonthlyrunoff.Differencesinhydrologicalresultsamongallclimatecasesareduetowiderangeofchangesinclimatevariables.

【 授权许可】

Unknown