Secular non-linear trends and multi-timescale oscillations of regional surface air temperature in eastern China

Climate Research

Weihong Qian¹  Kaijun Wu¹ 

关键词: Secular trend;    Multi-timescale variability;    Surface air temperature;    Eastern China;    Climate prediction;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr01284

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Secular trends and multi-timescale oscillations of global and regional surface air temperature (SAT) have been widely investigated in recent decades. In this paper, the method of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is first used to decompose 18 station SAT anomalies in eastern China from 1921 to 2011; 16 stations are then grouped into 4 regions based on the secular non-linear trend and multi-timescale oscillations longer than 10 yr in these SAT anomaly series. The analysis showed that multi-timescale oscillations commonly exist in eastern China, while the 2 largest regional warming trends of 3.3 and 1.21°C per century exist in Northeast China and North China, respectively. Four regional secular non-linear trends and multi-timescale oscillations were explained and used in the extrapolation for the coming 2 decades. Although there is a secular warming trend, the predicted SAT anomaly for Northeast China is expected to continue the recent warming slowdown in this decade and then a new warm flat in the following decade. For other regional SAT anomaly predictions, North China will have a slight warming trend in the coming 2 decades, central China will have a warming process in this decade then a new warm spell in the 2020s, and South China will maintain the current level in this decade then have a quick warming process in the 2020s.

【 授权许可】

Unknown