Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND

Climate Research

Richard S. J. Tol¹  Daiju Narita¹  David Anthoff¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Tropical storms;    Economic impact;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr00799

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage.

【 授权许可】

Unknown