Factors affecting hare–lynx dynamics in the classic time series of the Hudson Bay Company, Canada

Climate Research

Yi Tao Zhenqing Li¹  Zhibin Zhang¹ 

关键词: ECMWF GCM;    General circulation model;    Stochastic weather generator;    LARS-WG;    Wheat simulation model;    Sirius;    Probabilistic ensemble;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr034083

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The 10 yr hare–lynx (Lepus americanus– Lynx canadensis) cycles in boreal forest of North America have been well known for >100 yr, but the underlying mechanism is still not fully understood. Prey–predator interactions are generally thought to be the major causative factor for the cycle. The effect of climate on the hare–lynx cycle has been largely ignored. By using partial cross correlation and stepwise multiple regression methods, we re-analyzed the Hudson Bay Company’s well known hare–lynx time series (1847–1903), to evaluate effects of intrinsic self-regulation, prey–predator interactions and El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hare–lynx dynamics. Our results clearly indicate that the widely cited classic hare–lynx dynamic is mostly explained by intrinsic self-regulation factors, instead of by prey–predator interaction; ENSO has small effects on rates of increase in hare and lynx populations.

【 授权许可】

Unknown