Worldwide fluctuations in dengue fever cases related to climate variability

Climate Research

Jonathan A. Foley¹  Marianne J. Hopp¹ 

关键词: Dengue;    Climate;    Aedes aegypti;    Mosquito;    Model;    Population dynamics;    Climate forecasts;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr025085

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Dengue fever is the most significant mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is a leading cause of childhood deaths and hospitalizations in many countries. Variations in environmental conditions, especially climatic parameters, affect thedengue viruses and their principal mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, but few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships at the global scale. Here we use a numerical model to simulate the response of Ae. aegypti to observed climaticvariations from 1958 to 1995 and to examine how modelled Ae. aegypti populations may be related to dengue and DHF cases worldwide. We find that variations in climate can induce large variations in modelled Ae. aegypti populations at theglobal scale. Furthermore, these climate-induced variations in modelled Ae. aegypti populations are strongly correlated to reported historical dengue/DHF cases, especially in Central America and Southeast Asia. These results suggest that potentialdengue caseloads could be anticipated using seasonal climate forecasts to drive the mosquito model, thus providing a useful tool in public health management.

【 授权许可】

Unknown