Comparison of extremes in GCM-simulated, downscaled and observed central-European temperature series

Climate Research

Jan Kysel¹ 

关键词: General circulation model;    Statistical downscaling;    Validation;    Surface temperature;    Central Europe;    Extreme value analysis;    GEV distribution;    Maximum likelihood method;    L moments;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr020211

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: This study concentrates on the comparison of 20 and 50 yr return values of annual maximum and minimum temperatures in (1) observations, (2) general circulation model (GCM) simulated control climates, (3) statistical downscaling fromobservations, and (4) statistical downscaling from GCMs. Temperature series at 4 sites in central Europe and in the nearest GCM gridpoints corresponding to the stations are analysed. Extreme value analysis was performed by fitting the generalized extremevalue (GEV) distribution using L moment and maximum likelihood estimators. The comparison does not appear to be sensitive to which statistical method of the estimation of parameters of the GEV distribution is used, although individual return valuesare influenced by the choice of method. The skill of both GCMs in reproducing extreme high and low temperatures is limited, and statistical downscaling from GCMs tends to improve their performance, although it generally yields extremes that are toomoderate compared to observed values (this holds for downscaling both from observations and GCMs). White noise addition in downscaling from observations leads to more realistic return values of annual maximum and minimum temperatures than varianceinflation.

【 授权许可】

Unknown