Dengue epidemics and the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Climate Research

Andrew B. G. Bush¹  Alexandre S. Gagnon¹  Karen E. Smoyer-Tomic¹ 

关键词: El Niño;    Dengue;    Epidemics;    Temperature;    Rainfall;    Indonesia;    South America;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr019035

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the 1997/98 El Niño might have been the cause of the dengue fever epidemics in many tropical countries. Because of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, the warm El Niño and thecold La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) engender significant temperature and precipitation anomalies around the world. This paper presents the results of a correlation analysis of past ENSO events with dengue epidemics across theIndonesian archipelago and northern South America. Our analysis shows that there is a statistically significant correlation at the 95% confidence level between El Niño and dengue epidemics in French Guiana and Indonesia and at the 90% confidence level inColombia and Surinam. These regions experience statistically significant warmer temperatures and less rainfall during El Niño years. Public health officials could therefore strongly benefit from El Niño forecasts, and they should emphasise controlactivities such as insecticide sprayings and media campaigns concerning the potential breeding sites of dengue mosquitoes during these years.

【 授权许可】

Unknown