Anthropogenic climate change shown by local wave conditions in the North Sea

Climate Research

Hans von Storch¹  Arnt Pfizenmayer¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Detection;    Attribution;    Wave climate;    Statistical downscaling;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr019015

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: In the central North Sea we have observed an increase in the frequency of eastwardly propagating waves in the last 4 decades. To assess the significance of this change, wave statistics for the 20th century were reconstructed with a statisticalmodel. With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis), monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against thisreference, the recent change appears statistically significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change, the reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of control and transient GCM scenarios(ECHAM4-OPYC3) and with the results obtained in a high-resolution time-slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last 4 decades. We suggestthat the recent increase in eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change.

【 授权许可】

Unknown