Assessing the impact of climate change on the Weser estuary region: an interdisciplinary approach

Climate Research

Michael Schirmer¹  Bastian Schuchardt¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Impact;    Estuary;    Regional scale;    Interdisciplinary;    Uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr018133

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: In an interdisciplinary project involving life, engineering and socio-economic sciences, the sensitivity to climate change of the hydrologic, ecological and socio-economic properties of the inner Weser estuary and its marshes are analysed anddifferent response strategies are developed and evaluated. To manage the complex interdisciplinary research process, the project has been organised with a stringent Œvertical¹ and Œhorizontal¹ structure. The Œscenario approach¹ is used to take uncertaintyinto account. The climate change scenario for the year 2050 includes a sea level rise, an increase in tidal amplitude and mean temperature (especially in spring and winter) and an increase in precipitation and wind speed. In the absence ofcountermeasures a multitude of Œnegative¹ primary effects can be expected, including overtopping of dikes by waves, submersion of forelands, changes in freshwater inflow, residence time and water quality in the estuary and water levels in the drainagesystems of the marshes.However, the overall impact for the region can primarily be assessed as Œmedium¹ and, if possible mitigating measures are taken into account, overall impact should be Œlow¹.

【 授权许可】

Unknown