The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture

Climate Research

Bruce A. McCarl¹  Chi-Chung Chen¹  Richard M. Adams¹  Rodney F. Weiher¹ 

关键词: ENSO events;    Economic effects;    Agriculture;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr013165

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. It is believed that in many parts of the world, including the United States, much of the year-to-year variation in climate can be traced to the El Niño-Southern Oscillationphenomenon. In 1997-98 the world experienced a severe El Niño event and this was followed by a strong La Niña in 1998-99. This paper develops estimates of the economic consequences of such events on US agriculture using a stochastic economic model of theUS agricultural sector. Both phases result in economic damages to US agriculture--a $1.5 to $1.7 billion loss for El Niño and a $2.2 to $6.5 billion loss for La Niña. The range in these damage estimates reflects assumptions concerning the relationshipbetween yields and ENSO weather patterns and how farmers respond to these potential yield differentials.

【 授权许可】

Unknown