Climate change impact on agricultural crops and adaptation options in Romania

Climate Research

Adriana Marica¹  Vasile Cuculeanu¹  Catalin Simota¹ 

关键词: Romania;    Winter wheat;    Maize;    Baseline;    GCM outputs;    Carbon dioxide;    Models;    Adaptation option;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr012153

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, thepaper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference inthe genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO₂ concentration level (winter wheat is a C₃ crop, while maize is a C₄ crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO₂ generalcirculation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. Theresults of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO₂ concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses toclimate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m^-2, and increasing fertilization levels.

【 授权许可】

Unknown