Uncertainty in modelling PM10 and PM2.5 at a non-signalized traffic roundabout

Developmental Biology

Ravindra Patil¹  Sharad Gokhale¹ 

[1] Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati – 781 039, India$$

关键词: Particulate matter;    Exhaust emissions;    Heterogeneous traffic;    Diurnal cycles;    Seasonal cycles;    Urban area;   

DOI  :  10.5094/APR.2010.009

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Dokuz Eylul Universitesi * Department of Environmental Engineering

【 摘 要 】

Uncertainty in inputs to most air quality models of causal nature often results uncertainty in modelled concentrations as well. If incorporated, it may provide complete information on assured range of air pollutant levels. The study presents a sensitivity analysis of models and the probabilistic based estimates of uncertainties in their predictions. Two vehicular exhausts dispersion models have been used for forecasting hourly average PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations at a non–signalized roundabout traffic intersection. The uncertainties were estimated using first–and second–order Taylor series and Monte Carlo methods due to wind speed and wind direction and evaluated with one week particulate matter measurements (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) during winter period. The amount of uncertainty due to wind speed was about 55% in the both models, resulted from wind direction was up to 5 to 20% of the modelled mean for receptors closer to the source but increased even up to 200% as the distance from the source increased. The uncertainty due to wind speed by second–order Taylor series matched with that by Monte Carlo method implying that a simple second–order Taylor series can be utilized for such studies instead of conventional time–taking Monte Carlo method.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   

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