Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24

Journal of astrophysics and astronomy

Rajmal Jain¹  Nipa J Bhatt1²  Malini Aggarwal¹ 

[1] Physical Research Laboratory, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380 009, India.$$;C. U. Shah Science College, Ashram Road, Ahmedabad 380 014, India.$$

关键词: Sunspot number;    precursor prediction technique;    geomagnetic activity index 𝑎𝑎.;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.

【 授权许可】

Unknown