Analysis of drought areas in northern Algeria using Markov chains

Journal of Earth system science

Michel Brucker2²  Mounir Sehad1¹  Mourad Lazri1¹  Soltane Ameur2²  Maurad Lahdir1¹ 

[1] Laboratoire LAMPA, University of Tizi Ouzou, Tizi Ouzou, Algeria.$$;School EPMI, EPMI – 13 Boulevard de l’Hautil 95092 CERGY PONTOISE Cedex, Paris, France.$$

关键词: Drought;    rainfall;    Markov chain;    transition probabilities;    standardized precipitation index.;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

The present work studies the trends in drought in northern Algeria. This region was marked by a severe, wide-ranging and persistent drought due to its extraordinary rainfall deficit. In this study, drought classes are identified using SPI (standardized precipitation index) values. A Markovian approach is adopted to discern the probabilistic behaviour of the time ser ies of the drought. Thus, a transition probability matrix is constructed from drought distribution maps. The trends in changes in drought types and the distribution area are analyzed. The results show that the probability of class severe/extreme drought increases considerably rising from the probability of 0.2650 in 2005 to a stable probability of 0.5756 in 2041.

【 授权许可】

Unknown