Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India

Journal of Earth system science

Dipam Khatua1³  Sandip Mukherjee3²  Anirban Mukhopadhyay1³  Tuhin Ghosh1³  Subhajit Ghosh1³  Debasish Mitra4¹  Arun Mondal2⁴ 

[1] Department of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India.$$;TERI University, New Delhi, India.$$;School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India.$$;Department of Water Resources Management and Development, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India.$$

关键词: Land-use dynamics;    Markov chain modelling;    NDVI;    SAVI;    supervised classification.;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

【 授权许可】

Unknown