RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Vicente Gracia¹  Xavi Gironella¹  Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla¹  Marta Gómez¹  Manuel García-Leon¹ 

[1] Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech

关键词: Beach flooding;    MonteCarlo simulations;    Climate change;    Overtopping;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v34.management.12

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

An analysis of the probability of failure of beaches along the Catalan coast (Northwestern Mediterranean) is presented. The failure condition is defined when waves are able to overtop the beach and reach the backshore. The analysis is performed by means of a verification equation where most of the related variables are assumed to be stochastic. The probability of failure of beaches is calculated by means of MonteCarlo simulations for present conditions and different climate change scenarios. At present 14% of the Catalan beaches fail the proposed protection function against storms. Under a high-end climate change projection (A1FI) 21% of beaches will fail.

【 授权许可】

Unknown