HURRICANE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA-LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Francisco Olivera¹  Chih Hung Hsu¹  Jennifer L. Irish²  Celso Ferreira³  Donald T Resio⁴ 

[1] Texas A&M University;Virginia Tech;George Mason University;University of North Florida

关键词: storm surge;    extreme-value statistics;    hurricanes;    risk;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v33.management.7

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

Assessment of hurricane flooding risk is an essential component for effective coastal planning and engineering design. Existing methods for evaluating extreme-value flood statistics traditionally assume that flood conditions are stationary, such that historical information represents future conditions. However, dynamic changes in the environment, specifically changing sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity and rate of occurrence, mean that future flooding risk will not be adequately represented by historical conditions alone. In this paper, an approach is proposed for incorporating future sea level and hurricane climate projections into extreme-value flood probabilities and risk assessment.

【 授权许可】

Unknown