FUTURE EXTREME WAVES AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COAST DERIVED FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RUNS

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Peter Fröhle¹  Norman Dreier²  Christian Schlamkow²  Dörte Salecker¹ 

[1] Hamburg University of Technology;University of Rostock

关键词: Baltic Sea;    climate change;    extreme waves;    Cosmo-CLM;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v33.management.5

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemünde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%.

【 授权许可】

Unknown