MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF FUTURE COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Nobuhito Mori¹  Tomoya Shimura¹  Hajime Mase²  Sota Nakajo¹  Tomohiro Yasuda¹ 

[1] Kyoto University

关键词: sea level rise;    ocean wave;    climate change;    statistical projection;    CMIP3;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v33.management.25

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

This study analyzes future change of averaged coastal physics such as sea level rises, sea surface winds and ocean wave heights based on the climate data set combining IPCC(2007) results and the latest MRI high-resolution AGCM results. The ocean wave height is statistically projected using an empirical formula with sea surface wind by multi-model ensemble. The ensemble means and their standard deviations of coastal forces are presented for the year 2000 to 2100. The signal of future change of Hs has stripped pattern in latitudinal direction and is clearer in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. The ratio of future change of $H_s$ to the present climate is 15% maximumly which is significant change than sea surface pressure and U10.

【 授权许可】

Unknown