NEAR-FIELD TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP PADANG, WEST SUMATRA: UTILIZING HIGH RESOLUTION GEOSPATIAL DATA AND RESEASONABLE SOURCE SCENARIOS

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Nils Goseberg²  Danny Hilman Natawidjaja¹  Torsten Schlurmann²  Widjo Kongko²  Kerry Sieh³ 

[1] Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI);Franzius-Institute for Hydraulic, Waterwaysa and Coastal Engineering;Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS)

关键词: tsunami hazard modeling;    risk assessment;    coastal development;    integrated coastal zone management;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v32.management.26

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

Near-field tsunami propagation both in shallow water environments and bore-like wave propagation on land are conducted in thisstudy to obtain fundamental knowledge on the tsunami hazard potential in the city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic ofIndonesia. As the region proves a huge seismic moment deficit which has progressively accumulated since the last recordedmajor earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, this investigation focuses on most reasonable seismic sources and possibly triggered nearshoretsunamis in order to develop upgraded disaster mitigations programs in this densely-populated urban agglomeration locatedon the western shore of Sumatra Island. Observations from continuous Global Positioning Satellite (cGPS) systems andsupplementary coral growth studies confirm a much greater probability of occurrence that a major earthquake and subsequenttsunami are likely to strike the region in the near future. Newly surveyed and processed sets of geodata have been collected andused to progress most plausible rupture scenarios to approximate the extent and magnitudes of a further earthquake. Based uponthis novel understanding, the present analysis applies two hydronumerical codes to simulate most probable tsunami run-up andsubsequent inundations in the city of Padang in very fine resolution. Run-up heights and flow-depths are determined stemmingfrom these most plausible rupture scenarios. Evaluation of outcome and performance of both numerical tools regarding impactsof surge flow and bore-like wave fronts encountering the coast and inundating the city are thoroughly carried out. Results arediscussed not only for further scientific purposes, i.e. benchmark tests, but also to disseminate main findings to responsibleauthorities in Padang with the objective to distribute the most probable dataset of plausible tsunami inundations as well as toaddress valuable insights and knowledge for effective counter measures, i.e. evacuation routes and shelter building. Followingevacuation simulations based on rational assumptions and simplifications reveal a most alerting result as about 260.000 peopleare living in the highly exposed potential tsunami inundation area in the city of Padang of which more than 90.000 people willneed more than 30 min. to evacuate to safe areas.

【 授权许可】

Unknown