RAPID PROBABILISTIC HURRICANE SURGE AND DAMAGE FORECASTING USING SURGE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS

Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering

Francisco Olivera¹  Youn Kyung Song¹  Jennifer Linnea Irish¹  Kunag-An Chang¹  Ikpoto Udoh¹  Celso Ferreira¹ 

[1] Texas A&M University

关键词: hurricane surge;    surge forecasting;    flooding damages;   

DOI  :  10.9753/icce.v32.currents.20

学科分类：建筑学

来源: Coastal Engineering Research Council

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, a joint probability approach is used with scaling laws for hurricane surge to rapidly develop probabilistic based hurricane surge and damage forecasts.The method presented is demonstrated along the Texas, USA coastline for Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in September of 2008.The probabilistic approach presented here is both accurate and fast, with a single surge and percent damage forecast taking less than one minute while representing more than 170,000 distinct hurricane possibilities.

【 授权许可】

Unknown