The PICRATE model for fitting the age pattern of first marriage

Mathématiques et sciences humaines. Mathematics and social sciences

Leclerc, Pauline M.¹  Garenne, Michel L.¹  Matthews, Alan P.¹ 

关键词: Africa;    age at first marriage;    Coale-McNeil model;    DHS survey;    event history;    mathematical model;   

DOI  :  10.4000/msh.11056

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: College de France * Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (E H E S S)

【 摘 要 】

We present a new model for fitting the age pattern of entry into a new situation. The formulation of the marriage recruitment rate is simpler than in other available models, and particularly useful for computer simulation of the time-evolution of a population. The model has three parameters: a0, the starting age at event, pmax, the maximum proportion of the population at risk p(a), and rmax, the maximum value of the recruitment rate r(a). This model was tested on the entry into first union, and was compared with the widely-used Coale-McNeil model. We applied this model to the case of Zambia, and to a variety of African countries with different features. This model could also be used for fitting a variety of processes, such as first sexual intercourse, first birth, first job, first adult migration, etc

【 授权许可】

Unknown