L'échec électoral est une science exacte

Mathématiques et sciences humaines. Mathematics and social sciences

Fansten, Michel¹ 

关键词: proximity;    balance of power;    clarity;    homogeneous electorate;    abstention;    election;   

DOI  :  10.4000/msh.11010

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: College de France * Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (E H E S S)

【 摘 要 】

Election behaviour, as represented in this paper, starts from a double hypothesis: given the choice of several candidates, a person will vote for the one he considers to be the closest to his or her views; within a homogeneous electorate, the factor of proximity is thus introduced according to simple statistical laws. The present article demonstrates some of the applications of mathematical formulae obtained in the case in which voters have a choice between two options or two candidates as illustrated by the recent elections in France. They basically show that voters are all the less motivated when the choices are not clearly defined, or when their favourite candidate’s side is divided. In the situation where the forces of power are more or less equal, it is the greater abstention on one side that will be the determining factor for election results.

【 授权许可】

Unknown