Inférence statistique, échangeabilité et approche mutiniveau

Mathématiques et sciences humaines. Mathematics and social sciences

Courgeau, Daniel¹ 

关键词: exchangeability;    multilevel approach;    Simpson paradox;    epistemological probability;    social sciences;    statistical inference;    frequence-type probability;   

DOI  :  10.4000/msh.6793

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: College de France * Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (E H E S S)

【 摘 要 】

This paper is concerned with the problems of statistical inference in social sciences. In order to pass from a population to a new individual by inference, de Finetti’s idea of exchangeability is useful. This is shown in a simple logit model and in a multilevel model, with a larger number of observed groups, where the Simpson’s paradox arises depending on whether you work on aggregate data or on group data. The concept of exchangeability permits, by using the appropriate probabilities, to solve a number of problems arising in statistical inference. But it is necessary to use not only the data but also information inferred by other means in order to make the final inference.

【 授权许可】

Unknown