Qui a peur de l'arithmétique ?

Mathématiques et sciences humaines. Mathematics and social sciences

Rohrbasser, Jean-Marc¹ 

关键词: population dynamics;    mortality;    arithmetic;    law of nature;    order;    probability of the duration of life;    population;   

DOI  :  10.4000/msh.2863

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: College de France * Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (E H E S S)

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, we deal with the first calculations applied to population, even the most elementary ones, made in the latter half of the 17th century. Is it possible, theoretically and practically, to fix an average length of the human life? At what does the population increase? The answers to these typical questions are governed by an hypothesis of a regulated nature, perhaps by action of the divine will, and underlying hypothesis of order: it is possible to detect a law acting in these phenomena. We will examine, in turn, mortality with Graunt and Halley, the probability of the duration of life with the brothers Huygens and Leibniz, and the arithmetic of the doubling of the population with Petty. For these pioneers, one can with just cause speak of an “arithmetic of population”, sometimes a probabilistic one, always focussing on concrete problems which, precisely, are stirred up by political arithmetic, that is to say considerations which are useful to the state. This paper presents the true birth of demographic statistics.

【 授权许可】

Unknown