L'interprétation des résultats statistiques

Mathématiques et sciences humaines. Mathematics and social sciences

Foucart, Thierry¹ 

关键词: social sciences;    modelling;    causality;    correlation;    chance;   

DOI  :  10.4000/msh.2840

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: College de France * Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (E H E S S)

【 摘 要 】

Most of the social measures are founded currently on statistical results and their interpretations. This argumentation is sometimes erroneous, for lack of competence and critical spirit, and abusive when the figures and their interpretations are used to justify preconceived ideas or personal motivations which can be conscious or not. The intention of this article is to warn people, both authors and readers, against these interpretations. R. PRESSAT, Christian Huygens and the John Graunt's life's tables, Math. & Sci. hum., n°153, 2001, p. 29-36. By analysing the John Graunt’s life’s tables matters, it is possible to point out the somehow artificial presentation way of some discrepancies established by the Huyghens brothers as reported by Jacques Véron et Jean-Marc Rohrbasser (Math. et Sci. Hum., n°149, p. 7-21). By computing the life’s span of the last surviving, out of a group of two persons, Christian Huygens has established the notion of conditional probability as well as the notion of the conditional life’s expectancy, both notions which have not explained, neither mentioned in the quoted article.

【 授权许可】

Unknown