Modeling Tourist Arrivals in Destination Countries: An Application to Australian Tourism | Science Publications

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

S. A.H. Shobeiri Nejad¹  Gurudeo A. Tularam¹ 

关键词: Mathematics modeling;    tourism models;    conceptual models;    tourism demands;    Tourist Area Life Cycle Theory (TALCT);    dynamical system;    hypothesized;   

DOI  :  10.3844/jmssp.2010.431.441

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

Problem statement: Little study is evident of mathematical modeling regarding tourist arrivals in South East Queensland of Australia. In this study the Bulter conceptual destination life cycle and product life cycle frameworks are used to develop an overall determinant mathematical model of Australian tourist arrivals. The model will be calibrated using real Australian data. A more complex dynamic is also being considered and will be reported later. Approach: In the main, a modeling approach with derivative calculus was used to develop the model and identify the stages of the framework: namely; periods of exploration, involvement, development, consolidation and stagnation stages. A logistic modeling approach is also used. Results: The conceptual model led to an exponential solution, and using logistic technique minimizing error led to an exponential model that fit the data well (adj r² = 0.99). The model predicts Australian arrivals to be 7.2 million arrivals in 2015. Each of the periods suggested in the literature was identified. A healthy rejuvenation rate of 0.144 was also noted rather useful for forward planners and government departments focused on enhancing Australia

【 授权许可】

Unknown