VAR-models for Predicting Biodiversity | Science Publications

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

S. A. Gattone¹  Tonio D. Bettista¹  Mariagrzia Granturco¹ 

关键词: Biological community;    abundance vector;    diversity profiles;    VAR models;   

DOI  :  10.3844/jmssp.2005.322.325

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

The aim of this work is to introduce a methodology for monitoring diversity of a biological population by using the tool of diversity profiles. In particular, we develop a theory for studying the diversity profile along the temporal axis. We propose forecasting techniques for diversity profile by using the VAR model on multivariate time series of abundance vector and ARMA models both on univariate time series of abundances and on the aggregated series of diversity profiles. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed in order to test the goodness of forecasts obtained applying the three different methods proposed.

【 授权许可】

Unknown