Statistical-Based Forecasting of Avalanche Prediction

Defence Science Journal

Girish Semwal¹  K. Srinivasan²  T. Sunil² 

[1] GB Pant University, Pantnagar;Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment, Manali

关键词: Statistical based avalanche forecasting model;    Multiple linear regression model;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Defence Scientific Information & Documentation Centre

【 摘 要 】

This paper describes the study carried out to predict few meteorological parameters of the nextday using the observed parameters of previous day through statistical methods. Multiple linear regression model was formulated for a hill station, Patsio, situated between Manali and Leh, for two winter months(December and January) separately. Twelve meteorological parameters were predicted using 18 predictorsob served on the previous day. Ten years data has been used for the computation of regression coefficients. A  comparison of the forecasted parameters with the observations was made through the regressionmodel. The prediction of the developed regression model was reasonably close to the observations.The relevant statistical error associated with the linear model (standard error) was also estimated. Theoutput of this regression model will be useful in developing knowledge-based and statistical-basedavalanche forecasting model

【 授权许可】

Unknown