Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries | Science Publications

American Journal of Applied Sciences

Asrin Karimi¹  Khalid Abdul Rahim¹  Pouya Faroughi¹ 

关键词: Tourism Demand;    Economic Growth;    Macroeconomic Indicators;    Panel Poisson Regression;    Modeling;   

DOI  :  10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

This study attempts to find the bestmodel to forecast international tourism demand using a series of keymacroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalizedPoisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run internationaltourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate havenegative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand,foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship withinternational tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is along-run relationship between variables.

【 授权许可】

Unknown