A deterministic model for the dynamicsof furunculosis in chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

P. W. Reno¹  D. Sampson¹  H. Ogut¹ 

关键词: Deterministic models;    Disease dynamics;    Furunculosis;    Aeromonas salmonicida;   

DOI  :  10.3354/dao062057

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Inter-Research

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Studies were undertaken to determine the parameters of transmission of Aeromonas salmonicida in chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and to develop a deterministic model of the dynamics of experimental furunculosis. Fordetermination of disease transmission coefficient (β), disease-related mortality rate (α) and natural mortality rate (γ), fish in 70 tanks (~42 fish tank^–1) were each exposed to a single infectious donor fish, 7 tanks wererandomly selected daily and all individuals were examined for the presence of A. salmonicida in the kidney. The proportion of susceptible (S), infected (I) and removed (R, dead) individuals were determined daily. The parametersβ, α, γ, reproductive ratio (R₀) and threshold density were estimated to be 0.0214 infected ind. d^–1, 0.29 infected ind. d^–1, 0.00015 ind. d^–1, 3.23 and 13.56 ind.,respectively. Using these parameters, a deterministic disease model of A. salmonicida infection as a cause of furunculosis was constructed. The net rate at which new individuals became infected (the incidence rate) per unit time was proportional toS × I × β. The model-produced data for S were significantly associated with experimental data (r² = 0.92). In brief, a simple SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model was successfully utilized to simulateobserved data

【 授权许可】

Unknown