Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle | Science Publications

American Journal of Environmental Sciences

Chamhuri Siwar¹  Mohd E. bin Toriman¹  Basri Talib¹  M. M. Alam¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    rainfall variation;    agricultural cycle;    irrigation water;    agricultural productivity;    Integrated Agricultural Development Area (IADA);   

DOI  :  10.3844/ajessp.2011.82.89

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

Problem statement: The decision of crop selection and the output of agriculturalproduction are highly determined by the environmental factors, especially rainfall and wateravailability. In the tropical area, particularly in Malaysia, influences of these exogenous variables areso high that overall agricultural productions are now vulnerable. Crops are affected through rainfall intwo different ways-high and low rainfalls. Avoiding the problem of low rainfall is nearly possiblethrough irrigation, but over rainfall at the end of crop cycle causes destructive damages of the output.Approach: This study uses descriptive statistics to analyze the fact and uses unit root test to measurethe predictability of rainfall. The raw data is taken from 8 stations from 1980 to 2007. Results:Shifting crop cycle is also not fruitful due to un-predictive changes of rainfall. All combination of cropcycle is also affected in a similar way. Government subsidy in agricultural sector is remarkablyincreasing, but farmers are not able to cope properly with the environmental changes, especially for thecash crops and seasonal crops production. Conclusion: Under this circumstance, in the short run,adaptation approaches should be followed in farmer level and policy level. In the long run,technological advancement will play the most crucial role to solve the problem.

【 授权许可】

Unknown