Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change

Agricultural and Food Science

Heikki Sakari Lehtonen¹ 

[1] ProfessorNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Economics and Society

关键词: agricultural sector modelling;    economic adjustment;    global prices;    climate change;    Finnish agriculture;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：食品科学和技术

来源: MTT/Agrifood Research Finland

【 摘 要 】

Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.

【 授权许可】

Unknown