Escenarios de subida del nivel medio del mar en los mareógrafos de las costas peninsulares de España en el año 2100

Estudios Geográficos

Miguel Fernández Díaz¹  Pablo Fraile Jurado² 

[1]Universidad de Sevilla

关键词: subida del nivel del mar;    mareógrafo;    pronóstico;    serie temporal;    escenario;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Estudios Geograficos

【 摘 要 】

The aim of this work is to calculate mean sea level rise expectatives for the year 2100 in the tide gauges located in the Spanish side of the Iberian Peninsula. By means of the use of time series analysis of annual mean sea level change rates, and comparing these data with the evolution of the global mean sea level during the period of measurement of each tide gauge, a local factor of sea level rise was obtained. The local factor is used to modify the future global expectatives, obtaining a local future value. The calculations have been made for 18 tide gauges and 6 different scenarios of mean sea level rise. The obtained results show generalized sea level rises, with strong differences depending on the global sea level rise scenario and on the recent evolution of mean sea level in each tide gauge.

【 授权许可】

Unknown