Modeling the growth of Brazilian cattle population

Revista Brasileira de Zootecnia

Freitas, Alfredo Ribeiro de²  do Val, João Bosco Ribeiro³  Andrade, Marinho Gomes de¹  Loibel, Selene Maria Coelho³ 

[1] USP;Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste, São Carlos;UNICAMP

关键词: Markov Chain;    population growth indicators;    profile likelihood function;    Richards growth model    IntroduçãoEnquanto a população bovina mundial tende a estabilizar;    ou mesmo reduzir;    como acontece nos grandes países produtores de carne (Pineda;    2000);    o rebanho brasileiro aumentado nos últimos anos;    possuindo atualmente em torno de 164 milhões de animais;    com crescimento de 10 milhões apenas nos últimos sete anos (ANUALPEC;    2002);   

DOI  :  10.1590/S1516-35982005000700009

学科分类：兽医学

来源: Universidade Federal de Vicosa

【 摘 要 】

The growth of the Brazilian bovine cattle population was evaluated using the effective number of animals and the annual slaughter rate from 1983 to 2000. The Richards model was fitted with the profile likelihood technique. Two population parameters were calculated by Markov chain modeling: a) the probability of the cattle population to reach 200 million of animals in 2015 as a function of the slaughter rate; b) the time to reach this size, considering different annual slaughter rates. The Richards model was adequate to estimate the Brazilian cattle population growth since overestimated and/or underestimated values ranged between one and 2.5%. The probability of the Brazilian herd to reach 200 millions animals in 2015 for an annual slaughter rate of approximately 17% is 0.7 and the expected time to reach 200 million animals for annual slaughter rates of 16% and 18% was 11 and 20 years respectively.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC