Real time detection of farm-level swine mycobacteriosis outbreak using timeseries modeling of the number of condemned intestines in abattoirs

Journal of Veterinary Medical Science

Yasumoto ADACHI²  Kohei MAKITA¹ 

[1] Veterinary Epidemiology Unit, Division of Health and Environmental Sciences, Department of Veterinary Medicine, School of Veterinary Medicine, Rakuno Gakuen University, 583 Bunkyodai Midorimachi, Ebetsu, Hokkaido 069�?8501, Japan;Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Okhotsk Sub-Prefectural Bureau, Hokkaido Prefectural Government, 72�?1 Chigusa, Higashi-Mokoto, Ozora Town, Abashiri-Gun, Hokkaido 099�?3231, Japan

关键词: abattoir;    ARIMA model;    meat inspection;    swine mycobacteriosis;    time series analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1292/jvms.14-0675

学科分类：兽医学

来源: Japanese Society of Veterinary Science

【 摘 要 】

References(33)Mycobacteriosis in swine is a common zoonosis found in abattoirs during meat inspections,and the veterinary authority is expected to inform the producer for corrective actionswhen an outbreak is detected. The expected value of the number of condemned carcasses dueto mycobacteriosis therefore would be a useful threshold to detect an outbreak, and thepresent study aims to develop such an expected value through time series modeling. Themodel was developed using eight years of inspection data (2003 to 2010) obtained at 2abattoirs of the Higashi-Mokoto Meat Inspection Center, Japan. The resulting model wasvalidated by comparing the predicted time-dependent values for the subsequent 2 years withthe actual data for 2 years between 2011 and 2012. For the modeling, at first,periodicities were checked using Fast Fourier Transformation, and the ensemble averageprofiles for weekly periodicities were calculated. An Auto-Regressive Integrated MovingAverage (ARIMA) model was fitted to the residual of the ensemble average on the basis ofminimum Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). The sum of the ARIMA model and the weeklyensemble average was regarded as the time-dependent expected value. During 2011 and 2012,the number of whole or partial condemned carcasses exceeded the 95% confidence interval ofthe predicted values 20 times. All of these events were associated with the slaughteringof pigs from three producers with the highest rate of condemnation due tomycobacteriosis.

【 授权许可】

Unknown