Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms

Kelly J. Irwin¹  Michael J. Freake¹  Koichi Goka¹  Atsushi Tominaga¹  Sachiko Moriguchi¹  Kazutaka Suzuki¹ 

关键词: Bd;    Chytrid fungus;    Chytridiomycosis;    Eigenvector-based spatial filtering;    Species distribution model;    Niche modeling;    MaxEnt;   

DOI  :  10.3354/dao02838

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Inter-Research

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model’s accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

【 授权许可】

Unknown