Preliminary Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests for Avian Influenza Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Method in an Emergency Surveillance

Journal of Veterinary Medical Science

Masaji MASE¹  Toshiyuki TSUTSUI²  Sota KOBAYASHI²  Akiko NISHIGUCHI²  Kenji TSUKAMOTO¹  Masatoshi OKAMATSU¹  Takehiko SAITO¹  Takehisa YAMAMOTO² 

[1] Research Team for Zoonotic Diseases, National Institute of Animal Health;Epidemiological Research Team, National Institute of Animal Health

关键词: avian influenza;    diagnostic tests;    Markov Chain Monte Carlo method;   

DOI  :  10.1292/jvms.69.673

学科分类：兽医学

来源: Japanese Society of Veterinary Science

【 摘 要 】

References(13)Cited-By(7)In June 2005, an outbreak of avian influenza (AI) caused by a low pathogenic H5N2 virus was identified in Japan. A serological surveillance was conducted because the infected chickens did not show any clinical signs. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method was used to evaluate the performances of serological HI and AGP tests because there was not enough time when the surveillance was initiated to conduct a test evaluation. The sensitivity of the AGP test (0.67) was lower than that of the HI test (0.99), while the specificities were high for both tests (0.96 for AGP and 0.90 for HI). Based on the low sensitivity of the AGP test, the HI test was used for primary screening in later stages of the epidemic.

【 授权许可】

Unknown