Deaths due to malnutrition in the elderly, São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro: time series analyse. 1980-1996

Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia

Otero, Ubirani Barros¹  Gadelha, Angela Jourdan¹  Rozenfeld, Suely¹ 

[1] Fundação Oswaldo Cruz

关键词: Malnutrition;    Aged;    Mortality;    Time series analysis;    Epidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S1415-790X2001000300006

学科分类：过敏症与临床免疫学

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVES:To describe mortality evolution of malnutrition in elderly in Rio de Janeiro(RJMA) and São Paulo Metropolitan Areas (SPMA); to verify it's tendecies,between 1980-1996; and to propose a model wich permit us to foresee the casesoccurances.
METHODOLOGY:It's a time series analysis, using ecological data. People from RJMA and SPMAaround 60 year-old and older ones, of both sexes were included in this research.The source of those data were the Mortality Information System (1980-1998).The series of monthly cases were analyzed, in a period from January of 1980to December of 1996. To model the series and to predict the malnutrition casesin elderly. The method Box and Jenkins was used, SARIMA (Seasonal AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average).
RESULTS:The results show the existence of seasonable pattern with the largest numberof deaths during the months of June and July in SPMA probably because of thecold weather in São Paulo in the winter and during the month of january,in Rio de Janeiro, probably because of the high temperature in this city inthe summer. These results can be explained by the difficult of elderly to maintentheir bodies in a good temperature during those months what represents an additionalstress to their organism poor in nutritional reservations.
CONCLUSIONS:The series presented a rising tendency of death and showed seasonable patternin winter in SPRM and in the summer in RJRM. To estimate the SARIMA models tothe Regions for the year of 1996, the results reforced the hypothesis that thismethod can be efficient to make future forecasts. It's probably that a researchwich considers so many death causes will permit to verify the real contributionof the malnutrition as the basic cause or at least a contributive cause of thosedeaths.

【 授权许可】

CC BY