Bayesian Framework in Repeated-Play Decision Making | Science Publications

American Journal of Applied Sciences

Yohei Kobayashi¹  Takemi Fujikawa¹ 

关键词: Complete ignorance;    decisions from experience;    incomplete ignorance;    Decision Makers (DMs);    framework more tractable;    different predictions;   

DOI  :  10.3844/ajassp.2012.609.614

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

Problem statement: There have been much reported on decisions from experience, also referred to as decisions in a complete ignorance fashion. Approach: This note lays out a Bayesian decision-theoretical framework that provides a computable account for decisions from experience. Results: To make the framework more tractable, this note sets up and examines decisions in an incomplete ignorance fashion. The current discussion asserts that well-known behavioural effects, such as the hot stove effect and the Bayesian framework may lead to different predictions. Conclusion/Recommendations: The framework is applied to the continuity form to predict a possibility from their experience. We conclude that the reasonable prediction is sometimes leads them to the unreasonable conditions.

【 授权许可】

Unknown