An HIV/AIDS Model with Variable Force of Infection and its Application to the Epidemic in Uganda| Science Publications

American Journal of Applied Sciences

Flugentius Baryarama¹  Livingstone S. Luboobi¹  Joseph Y.T. Mugisha¹ 

关键词: HIV/AIDS model;    prevalence rates;    force of infection;    adult population;   

DOI  :  10.3844/ajassp.2005.1274.1278

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Science Publications

【 摘 要 】

An HIV/AIDS model is formulated with variable force of infection for the adult population. Its actions are reduced to a prevalence equation that is a non-logistic equation whose explicit solution is derived. The implications of applying the solution to the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are discussed with respect to the positive boundedness of the coefficients. Prevalence projections are presented for various initial prevalences and behavior change parameters. The main finding is that in settings with high recruitment rates, the HIV epidemic reaches peak prevalence (and thereafter start declining) when the rate of new infections is still higher than the rate of removal of those infected with HIV.

【 授权许可】

Unknown