Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

eLife

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[1] Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom;Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Department of Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de SantanaBahia, Brazil;Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMI 233, INSERM U1175 and Institut de Biologie Computationnelle, LIRMM, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France;Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, SalvadorBahia, Brazil;

关键词: Zika;    herd-immunity;    mathematical model;    Virus;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.29820

来源: publisher

【 摘 要 】

10.7554/eLife.29820.001The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.

【 授权许可】

CC BY